The Voice Predictions

Based on the iTunes sales data, it looks like the teams will rank:

Team Blake:
1) Danielle Bradberry
2) The Swon Brothers
3) Holly Tucker
4) Justin Rivers

Team Usher:
1) Michelle Chamuel
2) Josiah Hawley
3) Cathia
4) Vedo

Team Shakira:
1) Sasha Allen
2) Garrett Gardner
3) Kris Thomas
4) Karina Iglesias

Team Adam:
1) Amber Carrington
2) Sarah Simmons
3) Caroline Glazer
4) Judith Hill

Now for some notes on the numbers...
Notes on Team Blake: Danielle had a very commanding lead in iTunes sales and it looked like she had a pretty strong showing on social media (though, as I mentioned in my last post, my analysis program for this isn't finished yet, so that's not definitive). I am almost 100% sure that she has the top spot on Team Blake, and probably received the most votes in the competition. Holly and Justin were pretty close together, so their ranking could actually be reversed... I'm pretty sure that they are the bottom 2, though.

Notes on Team Usher: While I thought that Michelle's performance was the worst in the round, she had a solid lead over her competitors on the iTunes charts, and got rave reviews on social media networks. Vedo and Cathia had the least support in the whole competition, so it was difficult to measure how they compared to each other.

Notes on Team Shakira: I actually don't have any notes here.

Notes on Team Adam: This will be the most interesting team to watch in this results show. Sarah and Caroline are very close together. Their position could be reversed. This is the only team where I have some doubts about my projections about who's in the bottom 2.

Predictions on Saves:
Obviously this section is, at this point in the competition, hard to predict from data. But, here's my analysis.

Team Blake: My gut reaction was to think that Blake would save Holly since, from a pure vocal perspective, she's probably better than Justin, and since I think her sales and vote totals were a little bit higher. Upon further review, though, I think that Blake will actually save Justin. This will allow him to move forward with representatives of three totally different facets of country. Keeping Justin will allow Blake to continue to do things with country rock. More importantly, though, it's the strategic move for his team. I suspect that Blake will fear that Danielle and Holly would be similar enough that they would steal votes from each other, hindering each other's success.

Team Usher: Usher loves Vedo. He's not going to send him home. Vedo is his last chance to do his kind of music on the show this season. While I would argue that Cathia is actually Team Usher's best vocalist, technically, I also think that Usher will recognize that she doesn't have a great constituency of supporters, unless she decides to take a sharp turn towards a more distinctively Latin sound. Even though she's a very skilled singer, that won't be sufficient to differentiate her in a field with the other skilled vocalists on the show, like Sasha Allen.

Team Shakira: Between Kris and Karina, I think that Shakira will save Kris.

Team Adam: I think that Adam will save Judith. He obviously loves her performances, and for good reason. For whatever reason, her performance this week doesn't seem to have generated much buzz, but Adam will want to give her another chance to spark public enthusiasm. If Caroline is the one to go, I will miss having her on The Voice. She's brought some pleasant stylistic diversity to the show. I would rather see Sarah go home, but I'd put the odds of that happening as something like 20%.

I'll report back after the show to be accountable for my results... and I'll be here next Wednesday with a revamped post format, and much more complete data.

The Voice Predictions

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Predictions: May 8th, 2012

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